Predictions for Paraguay's final World Cup 2026 group match against Australia
June 26, 2026 · TaegeukGoal
Paraguay and Australia will face each other in the final group match of the 2026 World Cup, competing for automatic qualification.
In the final match of Group D, Paraguay and Australia will face off at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on Friday for a spot in the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. Both teams have picked up three points each from their first two games and are certain to finish in the top three, but only one team needs to finish second to guarantee automatic progression.
Conclusion: Draw
Highest odds: 29/25
Bookmaker:22bet
Paraguay
Paraguay bounced back impressively with a 1-0 win over Turkey after a heavy loss in the first game. The match took place despite them being down to 10 men in the first half and taking the lead with an early goal from Matthias Gallarza. Coach Gustavo Alfaro is faced with a critical situation where a win is essential to ensure automatic advancement. If the points are tied, direct head-to-head scores take precedence, so a draw would result in Australia advancing on goal difference. Most of Paraguay's recent wins have been by narrow margins, and they have shown their potential with five wins in their last seven games. Historically, Paraguay has never lost in the final group stage match of the last six World Cups. However, there is a major downside to this game. #### Team News
With key striker Miguel Almiron suspended due to a red card, Paraguay's attacking options will be greatly reduced. There are concerns about injury to Diego Gomez, who was replaced in the match against Turkey, but he is expected to play. Coach Alfaro needs to adjust his offensive tactics, and there is a possibility that Gustavo Velazquez, who has a strong defensive tendency, will be placed in an advanced position. Without Almiron, Paraguay's offensive power is expected to decrease significantly, putting a greater burden on other strikers.
Australia Australia had a mixed game, losing 2-0 to the United States after winning 2-0 against Turkey. Due to this loss, the hope of advancing to the top of the group has disappeared, but it is still possible to advance on one's own. Australia is in an advantageous position over its opponents as a draw or a win guarantees advancement to the round of 16. It is possible to advance to third place in the group, but it is not advisable to rely on other results. Historically, Australia has performed well against Paraguay and is undefeated in their last five games. This will be a positive psychological factor. Coach Tony Popolic's team has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 6 games, recording a positive goal difference. The overall defensive structure is also relatively stable.
Team News Matthew Leckie is a slight injury concern due to a muscle problem, but Christian Volpato is likely to replace him if a replacement is needed. Midfielders Aiden O'Neill and Paul Ocon-Enselter are also expected to retain their positions, while defensive backs Alessandro Kirkaty, Harry Sautar and Cameron Burgess will continue to be used. Defensive stability can be an important factor in intense games.
Key considerations
- There will be a lot of pressure on Paraguay as they must win to advance.
- Miguel Almiron's suspension was a major blow to the offense.
- Australia has a tactical advantage as it is possible to advance with just a draw.
- Australia is undefeated in all previous meetings against Paraguay. * Most of Paraguay's recent wins have been by narrow margins, so another fierce match is expected.
- Australia's defensive organization can play a decisive role against a weakened offensive line.
Conclusion
Paraguay will show its fighting spirit to remain competitive, but due to the lack of a main striker, it will be difficult to continuously harass Australia's defense. On the other hand, Australia has a clear path to advancement and a balanced squad. Although they did not show their best form in the previous game, they are expected to be able to take advantage of the opportunity as they have enough attacking options. While a fierce and tense match is expected, Australia is expected to secure at least the necessary points and confirm its advancement to the round of 16.
Conclusion: Draw
Highest odds: 29/25 **Bookmaker:22bet